🔗 Share this article

Things were simpler then. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.