A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
